One Last Look At The Polls

It needs repeating; this election will pivot on turnout. If progressives and liberals stay home tomorrow, the Republicans will take as many as 70 seats in the House and 10 in the Senate. We will see Speaker Boehner, Senate Majority Leader McConnell, and a parade of subpoenas from a cabal of second-rate House chairpersons. The very same legislators who railed against possible action against the war criminals of the Bush Administration as “political shenanigans”, will jump on the impeachment bandwagon.

If progressives come out to the polls in the morning, the best case scenario in light of the latest numbers, is that Democrats will loose 30 seats in the House and 2 in the Senate. The Congress, in that scenario, will chug on through Republican obstruction and accomplish very little over the next two years, but the nation will not slide backward under the weight of conservative policies. You remember those policies right? They are the very ideals that created this recession, opened up the quagmires in foreign policy, and put us behind every other industrialized nation in industrial capacity, trade, energy infrastructure, and medical cost.

As it stands, my projections for tomorrow are mixed. I will go on the record and predict the Democrats will loose 43 seats and the House majority. As for the Senate, I will go with a 5 seat loss, leaving that chamber with 52 Democrats, 46 Republicans, and 2 Independents (Socialist Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Joe Lieberman of Connecticut). These predictions reflect my belief that the overwhelming majority of polls are showing Republicans 3-5 ahead of where reality lives. This discrepancy is driven entirely by a reliance on polling that does not capture cell-phone only households. More than 20% of American households fit that description, and the majority of those trend liberal.

These households have not been seen as important by the pollsters because that demographic is far less likely to vote in a midterm election, thus the importance of turnout. If the pollsters are correct in their assumptions about likely voters, the Republican best case scenario will happen, if they are dead wrong, the opposite will be the case. This cycle will swing on the percentage of younger voters and minorities that Democrats can get to the polls. For more information and clarification on this topic, please visit pollster.com. Commentary on the importance of this election can be found at The Rational Middle.

Get out and vote on November 2…it is not a hard thing to do!

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Animated Balls: Election 2012

Episode 1: It's Hard to Choose Just One

Episode 2: Occupy Wall Street

Episode 3: 999! The Cain Train to Prosperity

Episode 4: Small Government

Episode 5: Newt is Forgiven

Episode 6: A Candidate with Big Balls

Episode 7: Why We Must Elect Rick!

Episode 8: Don't Make Me Use the "S" Word!

Episode 9: Santorum & Obamaville

Episode 10: Settle for Mitt!

Episode 12: Austerity and Obama's Debt!

Episode 13: From My Cold, Dead Hands!

Episode 14: Ryan is a Bold Choice for VP!

Episode 15: Mitt Romney's Taxes

Episode 16: Mitt & Me; 2 Peas in a Pod!

Episode 17: Mitt and the 47%

Episode 18: The PA Voter ID Law

Episode 19: The Boss is Running!

Episode 20: Benghazi Has Legs

Episode 21: Grover, the NRA, and the GOP

Animated Balls: A New Frontier!

Piers Morgan & the White House Conspire Against Alex Jones!

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